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#midterms#electionresults#election2026#genz#exitpolls#datavisualization#democrats#midterms2026#howcouplesmeet#onlinedating
Recent posts
What the 2026 midterm map would look like if only one group of people had voted. All 50 states are redrawn, Democrat vs Republican, for men, white men, women, white women, independents, rural and small-town voters, suburban voters, Catholics, Protestants and other Christians, voters 30 to 44, voters 45 to 64, seniors 65 and older, voters under 30, white voters without and with a college degree, voters with family incomes of $100,000 or more, Latino voters and Black voters.
Each state uses one race for every group: its Senate race, or its governor’s race where there was no Senate race or the main challenger was an independent. A state takes the color of the party that group backed in that race, from AP VoteCast, the voter survey NBC, CNN and Fox all used in 2026. AP’s unrounded figures break exact ties.
Some colors are estimates: every group in Indiana, Missouri, North Dakota, Utah, Washington and Montana, which had no usable poll, plus groups too small for AP to report in some states, mostly Black, Latino, young and Catholic voters in smaller states. Most estimates average two numbers: how that group voted in polled states with a similar overall result, and, where AP’s 2024 survey had enough of them, how it voted in that state in 2024, adjusted for the shift since. In the six unpolled states, the overall result comes from the state’s House vote.
Sources: AP VoteCast 2026 and 2024 (via NBC News and Fox News), NBC News results
#Midterms #ElectionResults #ExitPolls #Election2026 #GenZ
07 Nov 2026
How US couples meet: the percent of couples who first met each year online, through friends, work, bars and restaurants, school or family, 1950 to 2026.
It’s survey data, not a count of couples, 2026 is projected from the recent trend.
In 1950 School led at 14%, ahead of Friends at 13%. Online starts in the mid-1980s, hits 7% by 2000 and passes Friends around 2009. By 2026 it’s projected at 37%, with Work at 12%, Friends at 10% and Family under 1%.
Source: Stanford How Couples Meet and Stay Together surveys (Rosenfeld)
#HowCouplesMeet #OnlineDating #Relationships #DatingStatistics #DataVisualization
10 Oct 2026
The 2028 Democratic presidential nomination odds on Kalshi, prediction market from May 2025 through November 8, 2026. This follows Gavin Newsom, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Jon Ossoff, the three current leaders. These are nomination probabilities, not polling percentages or the odds of winning the presidency.
Why only three: they are the only candidates trading above 10%. Nobody else is above 6%. Kamala Harris and Pete Buttigieg sit around 5 to 6%, and Andy Beshear, Josh Shapiro, Raphael Warnock, James Talarico and Mark Kelly are bunched between about 3.5 and 5%, too close together to tell apart on the chart.
Each day is averaged with the two days on either side to make the longer moves easier to follow. The average narrows at the ends so the line starts and ends on actual daily closing prices. Days without trades keep the previous closing price. The three candidates don’t add up to 100 because the rest of the field isn’t shown.
Source: @Kalshi
#Democrats #presidentialelection #Ossoff #Newsom #AOC
10 Nov 2026
How each group of voters’ map changed from 2024 to 2026, if only that group had voted. 2024 is Harris vs Trump. 2026 is the same map as my first video, each state’s Senate race, or its governor’s race if there wasn’t one or the main challenger was an independent, so a strong candidate can move a state on their own, like Phil Scott in Vermont.
Black voters, Protestants, seniors and White voters without a college degree were in my first video but aren’t here because their maps barely changed from 2024. Independents are out because the 2024 surveys define them too differently to build a map I trusted.
2024 blends three surveys, AP VoteCast, the Edison exit poll and the Cooperative Election Study, lined up nationally and averaged by how many people each reached. 2026 is the SSRS Voter Poll the networks shared. Where a poll had too few of a group in a state, the color is an educated guess from how that group voted in similar states. Tested on states where we do know the answer, guesses like these were right more than 9 times in 10. DM me for a full detailed breakdown of the method I used for the estimations!
Sources: AP, SSRS, Edison Research, Cooperative Election Study
#Midterms2026 #Election2026 #ElectionMap #GenZ #ElectionResults
08 Nov 2026
Which states Americans moved to from 2012 to 2026, counting people who moved in from other states minus the ones who moved out. Moves from other countries aren’t counted.
Each year is averaged with the one before it so one unusual year doesn’t shift bars around too much. States that lost people, like California and New York, never show up because they’re below zero. The dots on the map follow where people really came from. Each dot leaves one of the states that sent the leading state the most people that year, in proportion to how many it sent, from IRS tax-filing migration data. Those are everyone who arrived from a state, not net, and the IRS data ends with the 2022 to 2023 move, so the last years reuse that mix. The Census Bureau’s estimates come in two releases that meet at 2020, and they get revised as new data comes in.
The last step, July 2026, is an estimate. The Census hasn’t counted that year yet, so each state continues its recent pace. Half of every 2026 number is the real 2025 count. U-Haul’s moves for July 2025 to June 2026 agree on direction. The Carolinas, Texas, Tennessee, Arizona and Idaho keep gaining. It will be replaced when the Census publishes its count.
Sources: US Census Bureau and IRS
#MigrationByState #WhereAmericansMove #Texas #NorthCarolina #SouthCarolina
06 Nov 2026
How each group of voters voted in the 2026 midterm House races, from the national exit poll. It covers all 25 single groups, like age, race, education, income and religion, and skips combinations like Latino men, which mostly repeat their parent groups.
Each group’s number is the winning party’s lead in points. Women went 59 to 40 Democratic, so they read +19. These are surveys of voters, not vote counts. The numbers are the November 4 estimates, and they can shift a little as the final votes come in.
Source: NBC News exit poll (SSRS for the news pool)
#Midterms #ElectionResults #Election2026 #BlueWave #GenZ
05 Nov 2026
Which groups of voters swung furthest between the 2024 presidential election and the 2026 midterms, from the national exit polls. A group’s swing is how much its margin moved: Kamala Harris versus Donald Trump in 2024, then Democratic versus Republican House candidates on November 3, 2026. Each bar is that swing, blue toward Democrats and red toward Republicans. Voters aged 18 to 29 went from Harris by 11 points to Democrats by 47, a 36-point swing. All voters swung 12 points, from Trump by 2 to Democrats by 10.
The chart ranks all 25 single groups (age, gender, race, education, income, party, religion and a few others) and leaves out combinations like Latino men, which repeat their parent groups. The scale stays the same for every row, so bar lengths compare all the way down the list. The number at the end of each bar is the swing in points. These are surveys of voters, not vote counts, the 2024 and 2026 polls were run by different firms, and the 2026 numbers are the morning-after estimates, which can move a little as the final votes are counted. It also compares a presidential race with House races, which is the usual way to measure a midterm swing.
Source: NBC News exit polls
#ElectionResults #ExitPolls #Election2026 #Democrats #Midterms
04 Nov 2026
Where big outside money is going in the 2026 midterms, in three rounds: the crypto industry’s super PACs, AIPAC’s United Democracy Project, and Elon Musk’s America PAC. Each round shows the candidates that group has spent the most to help, up to eight. The crypto network is Fairshake and its two affiliates, Defend American Jobs (Republicans) and Protect Progress (Democrats), funded mainly by Coinbase, Ripple and Andreessen Horowitz.
Crypto has spent $151 million on every race, AIPAC $54 million and America PAC $72 million. In crypto’s round, Jon Husted’s Ohio Senate race gets $56 million, about as much as the other seven on that board combined. $20 million of it is ads attacking his opponent, Sherrod Brown, who chaired the Senate Banking Committee. It is the second time crypto has gone after Brown; Fairshake spent about $40 million to unseat him in 2024.
Money spent attacking a candidate counts for the opponent it helped: the ads against Brown count for Husted, against Dan Osborn for Pete Ricketts, and against Juliana Stratton in Illinois’ Democratic primary for her main rival, Raja Krishnamoorthi. Stratton won that primary anyway. AIPAC’s primary attacks on Abdul El-Sayed count for Haley Stevens, who lost to him in August, and its later ones for his Republican opponent, Mike Rogers; Musk’s $29 million against James Talarico in Texas counts for Ken Paxton. Attacks in a primary where the group backed no one have no single opponent to credit, so they’re left out; for crypto that’s about $5 million in three crowded House primaries. Totals are every independent expenditure (ads, mail, digital) the PACs reported to the FEC through October 26, 2026.
When a round’s board settles, any candidate who has already lost their primary turns grey with a line through their name. Everyone else is still on the November ballot.
Source: Federal Election Commission
#Midterms2026 #SuperPAC #Midterms #AIPAC #ElonMusk
03 Nov 2026
How many people living in the US were born in each country, from 1850 to 2025. The chart follows every country that reached the top ten at any point, from Ireland and Germany to Mexico, India and China.
This counts people living here at the time, not new arrivals, so a bar shrinks as a generation dies or leaves. It includes anyone born abroad, citizen or not. Where borders moved, one bar follows the whole region: Russia covers the Soviet Union and its successors, and China includes Hong Kong and Taiwan. The Census counted every ten years, so 1940, 1950, 2001 to 2009 and 2020 were filled in from the years around them. Recent years are survey estimates, each averaged with the two years on either side.
Source: US Census Bureau
#Immigration #ImmigrationHistory #AmericanHistory #ICE #DataVisualization
02 Nov 2026
How stock trades by Democratic and Republican members of Congress have done against the S&P 500, from January 2020 to September 2026. The chart covers about 33,000 stock trades from 238 members.
Each party’s line is a copy of its members’ trades: every purchase and sale at the middle of its reported dollar range, on the day it was made, so it is an estimate. Each member counts equally, so a few big traders don’t decide a party’s line. The copies start buying in 2019, so they already hold stocks when 2020 begins. Options, bonds, funds and stocks that can no longer be priced are left out. All lines show the price gain since the end of 2019, without dividends. Each line is a nine-day average, so daily jumps don’t show. It ends in mid-September 2026 because members have up to 45 days to report a trade.
Sources: @quiverquantitative, @yahoofinance
#Congress #StockMarket #SP500 #Investing #CongressStockTrading
02 Nov 2026
The largest religions in the world by number of followers, from 1800 to 2025. The chart ranks Christianity, Islam, Hinduism, Buddhism, Chinese folk religion, ethnic religions, new religions, Sikhism and Judaism, along with people who follow no religion (agnostics and atheists).
Each bar is the number of people the researchers count as followers of that religion. Only six years come from the published tables: 1800, 1900, 1970, 2000, 2020 and 2025. The years in between are filled in as a steady path from one to the next, so the year one religion passes another is an estimate, not a recorded date. For no religion, 1950 to 1995 follows a second study’s counts every five years, scaled to match the main source in 1970 and 2000. The 1800 numbers are rough, since most of the world had no census then. These count who belongs to a religion, not how devout they are.
Sources: Center for the Study of Global Christianity at Gordon-Conwell (World Christian Database) and Correlates of War
#Religion #WorldReligions #Christianity #Islam #Atheism
01 Nov 2026
If Donald Trump had put every dollar his father gave him into an S&P 500 index fund the day he got it, would he be richer today? One line is Trump’s net worth from 1949 to today. The green line is the money his dad gave him, invested.
Neither number is easy to pin down. Trump has never opened his books, and he’s been pumping up his worth for over 40 years: in 1982 Forbes listed him at $100 million, and the Forbes reporter himself later said it was closer to $5 million. So we skipped anything Trump said himself, went with the best sources we could find for both lines, and tried to keep the comparison as fair as the records allow.
His net worth comes from people who actually looked at his finances: casino regulators, his bank, Bloomberg and Forbes. The late 80s rested on what Trump said his own buildings were worth, so those years are cut by the same share his bank cut them in 2005. The jump at the end is Trump Media, valued in the billions while making very little money, plus more than a billion from crypto since he took office, a lot of it from buyers who wanted something from the US government. That part swings a lot, so it’s averaged over a few months.
His dad’s money comes from the New York Times, which went through Fred Trump’s tax returns in 2018 and found Donald got at least $413 million (in 2018 dollars): trusts set up when he was 3, a yearly allowance that topped $5 million in his 40s and 50s, loans that mostly never got paid back, and a $177 million cut when the family sold the buildings in 2004. Each payment goes into the fund on the date the records give, or spread across the years when the Times only gave a yearly rate, with dividends reinvested. So the line doesn’t jump with every payment or market swing, payments ease in over six months and the index is averaged over about seven. Both lines are in the dollars of the day, not adjusted for inflation, and both start at the $159,000 his 1949 trusts were worth.
Sources: Forbes, Bloomberg, NJ Casino Control Commission, Deutsche Bank via court records, The New York Times (2018), S&P 500 total return (Robert Shiller, S&P Dow Jones Indices)
#DonaldTrump #TrumpNetWorth #Trump #Corruption #Se
01 Nov 2026
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